Big Fall in East Riding COVID Cases

Coronavirus cases in the East Riding have fallen “significantly” following a “bump” partly fuelled by the Euro 2020 tournament, the council’s public health lead has said.

East Riding Council’s Public Health Director Andy Kingdom said the “big shift” in case numbers had been seen across all age groups, but particularly among 16 to 29 year olds.

The director added while the number of coronavirus patients in Hull Royal Infirmary and Castle Hill Hospital remained high at 47, he expected it to drop in the coming weeks.

But Mr Kingdom also said the continuation of the trend hinged on residents continuing to voluntarily stick with mask wearing and social distancing, now “normal behaviour” for many.

It comes as new coronavirus cases reported in the East Riding fell from around 2,300 between Tuesday, July 13 and Monday, July 19 to about 1,200 the following week.

The seven day rolling rate also dropped from 674 per 100,000 people to 362 over the same period.

The fall also follows a spike earlier this month which saw cases in both Hull and the East Riding rise to some of the highest levels seen during the pandemic.

Mr Kingdom said the local coronavirus picture remained “complex” as the impact of reopening nightclubs and the school summer holidays were yet to play out.

The director said:

“There was a massive increase in cases among younger people particularly followed by a big drop.

“Probably the biggest change in behaviour since most restrictions were lifted in July was during the Euros.

“You had a lot of people, not always but mostly younger and male, squashed in enclosed spaces together, chanting and drinking and not distancing.

“They were spreading the catchier Delta variant among themselves and then taking it back to their households.

“But the tournament was like when people drink a lot at Christmas, it’s not how they’d behave during the rest of the year.

“I’m hoping the Euros were a blip that accelerated the increase, it’s a trend we’ve seen throughout England but not in Scotland whose team were out of the tournament earlier.

“The pingdemic was also a reflection of the big increase in cases.”

Mr Kingdom said people’s behaviour over the summer would make the difference in keeping case numbers down.

The director said:

“I don’t think the reopening of nightclubs will lead to Euros level surges but we don’t know yet.

“People may also be testing themselves less and school pupils won’t be tested as often during summer, but the falls seem to be bigger than the drop offs in those.

“It’s all based on behaviour now, we think people have less social contacts at the moment, typically you’d meet about 10 people a day but that’s down to around four now so there’s less people to spread it to.

“We might see cases go up in groups more likely to take risks like teenagers who rely on social interaction.

“But there’s also a level of immunity in the population now because of the number of people infected and most of the people who really need it have had the vaccine.

“Now we’ll have to see if the fall will stick, there will probably be another increase in the autumn but how people behave and how the vaccine rollout goes over the summer will determine whether it’s a ripple or a wave.

“I’m expecting hospital numbers to go up slightly next week before they drop off again once the lag of contracting to virus to becoming seriously ill works through the system.

“But if not then we could be facing some real problems.”

Mr Kingdom said he had faith in residents continuing to do the “right thing”, evidenced by the East Riding having one of the highest vaccine uptake rates in England.

The director said:

“Our vaccination rates are at 76 per cent for both doses, were among the areas with the highest uptake rates in England.

“That’s compared to 61 per cent in both Yorkshire and the Humber and England.

“People are doing a very good job including young people, I’ve seen a lot of rubbish online claiming they’ve not taking up the vaccine but their first dose rates are at 74 per cent.

“Some might still be dubious of the vaccine, but there’s been hundreds of millions of doses administered worldwide now, we know the side effects and we know it’s effective.

“The pandemic isn’t over yet, the risk is still there, people just need to carry on doing the things they’ve been doing really well already.”