Lithuania is no stranger to the threat posed by Russia given its geography and history.
But Vladimir Putin's appetite for risk appears to be growing.
Suspected Russian drone incursions, acts of sabotage and other hostile attacks are rising and spreading across Europe.
Security sources believe this shift is linked to Russia failing to gain ground in its war against Ukraine despite suffering heavy losses.
By targeting NATO allies with covert attacks, the thinking goes, the Kremlin is attempting to scare countries away from continuing to support Kyiv.
Mindaugas Sinkevičius, Lithuania's relatively new prime minister, says such intimidation tactics are having the opposite effect, though, with allies doubling down on their determination to back Ukraine rather than running away.
However, the proliferation in malign Russian activity raises the chance of an incident, either by accident or design, inflicting mass casualties on a NATO nation, which would require a collective response - if the 32 member states can agree to form a united front.
The Lithuanian leader tells Sky News's Defence Insider in an interview that he is sure this would happen and that the Russian president needs to understand the allies are not "blind kittens... If they will decide to attack, I think the response will be huge".
There is also a belief among western military and security chiefs that Mr Putin is not seeking direct confrontation with NATO.
But it is a gamble and the stakes are increasingly high.
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Asked whether he thought Mr Putin is preparing to escalate its hostilities further, maybe even with some kind of incursion into the Baltic states, Mr Sinkevičius said: "We see more political claims, but there might be something going on. And with Russia, you can never know what they're actually planning ... So Russia can escalate. But we're not shaking or trembling."
He made a chilling observation about Russia's ballistic missile production, saying just 30% of the total being manufactured are used in its war against Ukraine.
The rest is being stockpiled. The "question is for what?" he said.
Watch the full interview on the Sky News Defence Insider app.
(c) Sky News 2026: Lithuania PM confident of 'huge' NATO response if Russia attacks
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