Hungary goes to the polls as its hardman leader faces end of his 16-year reign

Hungary is voting to elect its leader and all 199 members of its parliament.

And if the polls are correct, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is on his way out.

After 16 years in power, Hungary's hardman leader - and his self-styled brand of "illiberal democracy" - will supposedly be toast.

This is a huge moment for Hungary and for Europe as a whole. The bloc's problem child may soon be a problem solved.

Orban initially rose to prominence in 1989 as an anti-Communist, student activist and figurehead of Hungary's nascent pro-democracy movement. From anti-Soviet liberal to pro-Kremlin, right-wing nationalist, his political transformation has been astonishing.

He is the EU's most pro-Russia leader, and has consistently stymied the bloc's efforts to punish the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine. His Fidesz party is running on an anti-Ukraine platform, which portrays Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the principal threat to Hungary's security. Orban claims his opponents will allow Kyiv and Brussels to drag the country into war with Russia.

"We always win. We always win," he told me at a rally this week, when I asked if he was worried he'll lose. But the Fidesz message doesn't seem to be landing in Budapest, at least.

At a mass anti-Fidesz protest-concert in the city's Heroes' Square on Friday evening, tens of thousands of people chanted "Russians go home", a reference to Hungary's failed uprising against Soviet occupation in 1956.

"I think if Fidesz stays in power we will be kicked out of the EU very soon and also from NATO, because we are spying for Russia," one protester told me.

The run-up to the election has seen Orban's government accused of treason, following allegations that it's been sharing confidential EU information with Moscow.

Support for Orban has traditionally come from rural areas, but even there, sentiment seems to be shifting. A stagnating economy, rising food prices, failing public services, and persistent accusations of corruption are fuelling an appetite for change.

The man promising change is Peter Magyar, a former Orban insider turned critic. He says he'll restore democratic checks and balances, unlock frozen EU funds, and pivot Hungary back towards the West.

He's not every Hungarian's cup of tea. A centre-right conservative, he opposes EU migration quotas and would retain the border fence that was controversially constructed under Orban.

But he's managed to unite the opposition through a savvy social media strategy and a tireless campaign schedule that has crisscrossed the country. As such, many view his Tisza party as the first real chance to finally unseat Orban and Fidesz.

Winning a majority won't be easy, though. After various changes to the constitution under Orban, Hungary's electoral system is now heavily skewed in favour of Fidesz.

Rivals accuse him of gerrymandering - redrawing the electoral map to suit his support base. In two of his re-elections, Fidesz won a two-thirds supermajority despite getting less than half the popular vote.

A Tisza victory is still considered the most likely scenario, but anything less than a clear win could get messy.

In the event of a narrow margin of victory for Tisza, "the legal process after the elections will be a lengthy one," predicts Robert Laszlo, an election specialist at Political Capital. Fidesz would challenge a close result "all ways they can", he believes.

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Whatever the final result, the consequences of this election will be felt beyond Hungary's borders. It's seen as a referendum on right-wing populism.

(c) Sky News 2026: Hungary goes to the polls as its hardman leader faces end of his 16-year reign