F1 title race: What factors will decide the championship between Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen?

Just two rounds remain in the 2025 Formula 1 season with Lando Norris leading the Drivers' Championship by 24 points over Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen.

Norris can become world champion as this Sunday at the Qatar Grand Prix if he outscores his title rivals by two points over the weekend, which features a Sprint on Saturday.

However, if Piastri or Verstappen are within 25 points after the Grand Prix, the title fight will be decided at the season-finale in Abu Dhabi on December 7.

• Qatar GP: UK schedule and how to watch on Sky Sports
• How Lando Norris can still win F1 title in Qatar despite dramatic disqualifications
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Two McLarens vs one Red Bull

Sky Sports F1's Martin Brundle predicted at the start of the year that the two McLarens would "take points off each other" over the season and that's certainly kept Verstappen in title contention.

McLaren still cannot afford to back championship leader Norris, given the possible scenario he has a poor result and Piastri suddenly is within single digits of his team-mate.

Should the McLaren duo find each other fighting for the same piece of track, they will battle hard and that comes with risk as proven at the Canadian Grand Prix when Norris ran into the back of Piastri, or the Austin Sprint when it was the other way around.

Norris and Piastri both said ahead of Las Vegas that their relationship was "as strong as ever" but surely some tension will begin to creep in.

At Red Bull, they will hope Yuki Tsunoda can produce two strong weekends to try and help Verstappen - whether that's giving a tow in the final part of qualifying or strategically in the race.

However Tsunoda has failed to reach Q3 in the last five rounds and, by the time the first pit stop phase has come, he has not been close enough to even hold up a McLaren that has pitted for a lap or two - in similar fashion to Sergio Perez at the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Possibly to secure his own future in F1, Tsunoda can repeat what Perez did in the closing stages of 2021 and be a strategic option for Red Bull.

How important will experience be?

Norris and Piastri are in new territory, at least at this level of motorsport, whereas Verstappen is experiencing his fifth F1 title fight. The pressure does not get any higher than the crux of a big championship battle, so could we see mistakes creep in from driver or team?

"Nothing feels different now, even though that is the opportunity I'm entering into," said Norris, who is aiming to become Britain's 11th different F1 world champion.

"I treat it the same. I treat it like I want to go and win. I'll do everything I can to try and win the race. It's certainly a lot more fun when you win than when you come second place.

"My goal is to win both races to the end of the season, and the Sprint as well. So I'll try and win all three, I guess. But no, I don't know if anything changes. Nothing for the minute."

Pressure will be on the team too to not have a negative impact on their drivers' chances with a slow pit stop, going the wrong way on car set-up, or a reliability issue - just a few examples where the engineers or pit crew will have an influence.

"The strategists, race engineer, the whole team need to keep pushing 100 per cent," said Sky Sports F1's Bernie Collins.

"The minute you try to play it safe, that's when you get caught out. You need to keep pushing to get the most from both drivers and give them a fair chance."

Then we have the luck factor. Being an innocent bystander in a race-ending collision or being impeded by another driver in qualifying are two situations you can do nothing about.

Ultimately, most of the stress will need to be handled by the driver and trying to treat these last two weekends like no other, which is what they tell the media.

The reality is different. Perhaps you drive slightly within yourself or take fewer risks, which itself can lead to unforced errors. That's the headache which will be heightened for Verstappen but particularly Norris and Piastri in their first title fights in F1 at this stage of the season.

Will qualifying decide the championship?

Since the summer break in August, a run of seven races saw the pole-sitter go on to win the race. This run only ended in Las Vegas as Verstappen won from second.

Even then, Verstappen proved the point that overtaking at the front is difficult as he led every lap after taking the lead from Norris at Turn Two.

The current ground effect cars are at their peak, producing so much downforce but that means there is more dirty air, which makes it hard to follow.

Mercedes driver George Russell said earlier this year: "Right now in F1 it's a race to Turn One. There's no tyre degradation, there's only three tenths between the quickest car and the slowest car in the top six.

"Normally, you need at least half a second to overtake. The thing is now when there's no tyre degradation, there's no tyre delta. Every track we go to you need at least half a second to overtake."

Norris has taken the last three pole positions, while Piastri has not been on the front row since the Dutch Grand Prix in August.

The Lusail International Circuit in Qatar and the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi are not easy to overtake at, so there will be huge pressure in qualifying to deliver.

Can another team play a role in the championship?

Mercedes are the likely team to be on the tails of the title protagonists, so Russell and Kimi Antonelli could influence the championship by splitting up the McLarens and Verstappen.

It will be particularly fascinating to see how aggressive the Mercedes drivers are in wheel-to-wheel battles, knowing they have a lot less to lose in any on-track duels.

In the last five races alone, Russell upstaged everyone by dominating the Singapore Grand Prix and Antonelli held off Verstappen in Brazil, then Piastri in Las Vegas on the track.

If Ferrari maximise their performance, they will be in the fight too so there are guaranteed to be some big overtakes and moves at least one of the championship challengers will need to overcome.

Who will Qatar and Abu Dhabi suit?

McLaren's big strength throughout the year has been the medium and high-speed corners, so, on paper, both Qatar and Abu Dhabi will suit their car.

However, Verstappen has had race-winning pace at five of the last seven races, winning four of those Grands Prix and blitzing through the field from the pit lane to the podium in Brazil.

Each of those victories have come at tracks with different circuit characteristics and conditions, so the narrative that McLaren will have the car to beat must be treated with caution, as Red Bull might have a car that's level, or just slightly behind, the MCL39.

"When you look at the pace over the last few weeks, they have been quick," said Norris.

"When they don't mess up Qualifying, they will win the race, like they did in Las Vegas and Monza and other races. It's tight. It can easily go our way and there way. We just have to do a much better job."

Red Bull brought a revised version of their Monza floor to Mexico City in October which did not work but after taking it off in the middle of the Brazil weekend, Verstappen has been able to take the fight to McLaren.

Qatar is a Sprint weekend, so there will be just one practice session this Friday afternoon before going straight into Sprint Qualifying. A weakness of Red Bull earlier this year was struggling out of the blocks and needing three practice sessions to dial in the car. That trait may also have gone, so the last two race weekends could be very close, and the drivers will make the difference.

Formula 1's season-ending triple header continues with the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint weekend live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

(c) Sky Sports 2025: F1 title race: What factors will decide the championship between Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen?