Sky News' Defence Insider gets exclusive access to staged Kaliningrad 'crisis simulation'

Mutiny erupts in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in an uncomfortable test for the Kremlin.

A group of rebels takes the territory's governor hostage and plots to send tanks and troops over its border into neighbouring Lithuania, which is part of the NATO alliance.

The goal of the mutineers - who want Moscow to take an even harder line with the allies than it already does - appears to be to start a fight with NATO that then forces the rest of Russia to roll in behind them and triggers a wider war between Moscow and the West.

It is one of three "crisis simulations" that took place at a university in Lithuania last week, with academics, former diplomats and other experts from the UK and across Europe playing the part of the Russian side, the mutineers and various NATO member states.

Sky News' Defence Insider was given exclusive access to watch what unfolded during the staged mutiny. You can watch what happened by visiting the app.

The exercise was created by a new think tank, called the Baltic International Security Centre, and Lithuania's ISM University of Management and Economics.

Edward Lucas, a British journalist and Russia expert, founded the think tank and helped to organise the simulations.

He said they were a deliberate contrast to other scenarios that imagine Russian forces creating the dilemma for NATO by targeting the alliance's eastern flank.

This time around, it is Moscow that is under the most pressure.

Wargames "that involve scenarios where NATO does nothing, stands by, [as Russian forces] go rolling into the Baltic states, it's all nonsense", Mr Lucas said.

"Actually, these countries [Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia] see things we don't see.

"They hear things that we don't hear. They understand things we do not understand. They do things that we don't do.

"And they are super vigilant and super ready, and they would fight like crazy. They've got allies here who are ready to fight from the first minute and [Vladimir] Putin actually knows that.

"So I think it was important to look at it the other way round and talk not about so much the military threat from Russia, but the real point, which is Kaliningrad's vulnerability."

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The territory, home to almost one million Russians, is separate from the Russian mainland and shares borders with the NATO states of Lithuania and Poland.

Mr Lucas said it was once highly militarised but many of the weapons and troops have been diverted to fight Russia's war in Ukraine, leaving the land much less well defended.

In a sign of potential nervousness in the real world about Kaliningrad, the Kremlin in recent weeks has warned that it would be willing to launch a nuclear attack in response to any challenge to the territory by NATO forces.

Lithuania and Poland are watching what happens on the territory closely amid concerns that Russians living there could seek to cross into the two NATO countries to avoid any attempt by the Kremlin to round up more civilians to fight in Ukraine.

The Lithuanian government is even sending additional troops to defend its border with Kaliningrad in case that happens.

Oana Lungescu, a former chief NATO spokesperson, helped to adjudicate the Kaliningrad wargames. She also played various roles as the scenarios unfolded, including the alliance's top military commander.

"My biggest takeaway is the importance of time, the importance of doing things very fast and in a coordinated fashion," she said in an interview.

"Things will come at you in the blink of an eye. They come from different directions. There's insufficient information, and there's complex decisions to be made, which is why it's important that, through NATO, all allies can reach a conclusion… and then act quickly and move fast into position and raise the readiness of their forces to pre-empt, to deter any aggression and to prevent any crisis from becoming worse."

(c) Sky News 2026: Sky News' Defence Insider gets exclusive access to staged Kaliningrad 'crisis simulation'