Just 25% of public think Sir Keir Starmer will win next election - with welfare row partly to blame

Only a quarter of British adults think Sir Keir Starmer will win the next general election, as the party's climbdown over welfare cuts affects its standing with the public.

A fresh poll by Ipsos, shared with Sky News, also found 63% do not feel confident the government is running the country competently, similar to levels scored by previous Conservative administrations under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak in July 2022 and February 2023, respectively.

Politics latest: 'A moment of intense peril' for PM

The survey of 1,080 adults aged 18-75 across Great Britain was conducted online between 27 and 30 June 2025, when Labour began making the first of its concessions, suggesting the party's turmoil over its own benefits overhaul is partly to blame.

The prime minister was forced into an embarrassing climbdown on Tuesday night over his plans to slash welfare spending, after it became apparent he was in danger of losing the vote owing to a rebellion among his own MPs.

The bill that was put to MPs for a vote was so watered down that the most controversial element - to tighten the eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP) - was put on hold, pending a review into the assessment process by minister Stephen Timms that is due to report back in the autumn.

The government was forced into a U-turn after Labour MPs signalled publicly and privately that the previous concession made at the weekend to protect existing claimants from the new rules would not be enough.

While the bill passed its first parliamentary hurdle last night, with a majority of 75, 49 Labour MPs still voted against it - the largest rebellion in a prime minister's first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair's Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.

It left MPs to vote on only one element of the original plan - the cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

An amendment brought by Labour MP Rachael Maskell, which aimed to prevent the bill progressing to the next stage, was defeated but 44 Labour MPs voted for it.

The incident has raised questions about Sir Keir's authority just a year after the general election delivered him the first Labour landslide victory in decades.

Read more:
How did your MP vote on Labour's welfare bill?
The PM faced down his party on welfare and lost

And on Wednesday, Downing Street insisted Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, was "not going anywhere" after her tearful appearance in the House of Commons during prime minister's questions sparked speculation about her political future.

The Ipsos poll also found that two-thirds of British adults are not confident Labour has the right plans to change the way the benefits system works in the UK, including nearly half of 2024 Labour voters.

Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: "Labour rows over welfare reform haven't just harmed the public's view on whether they can make the right changes in that policy area, they are raising wider questions about their ability to govern too.

"The public is starting to doubt Labour's ability to govern competently and seriously at the same levels they did with Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak's governments. Labour will hope that this government doesn't end up going the same way."

(c) Sky News 2025: Just 25% of public think Sir Keir Starmer will win next election - with welfare row partly to