If Cuba collapses, the US will be forced to deal with the consequence of its actions

It's only a couple of months or so since I was last in Cuba, and conditions then were pretty dire: power cuts, large queues for bread and fuel, state-run grocery stores virtually empty, mounting piles of rubbish on street corners, and few foreign visitors.

I have returned once again, and I was taken aback at how dramatically conditions have further disintegrated under Donald Trump's oil blockade in such a short space of time.

There's a lot of talk of possible US military action, like we saw in Venezuela at the beginning of the year when President Nicholas Maduro was snatched from the country, or maybe even an invasion.

But the way things are currently going, President Trump may not need to do much more to ensure the collapse of the state of Cuba.

The spectre of social and political collapse under a strict US oil embargo that's been in place since January is very real.

The government says it has now completely run out of fuel. That means power blackouts are now longer, rubbish piles on streets are bigger, and there are fewer cars on the road.

Every facet of life appears to be crumbling.

The primary purpose of our recent visit was to look at the condition of the health service, which we found is no different to other sectors - it's in serious trouble.

Once the envy of the Caribbean, a source of national pride, and internationally recognised for its excellence in the medical sector, Cuba's healthcare system is now functioning almost entirely on the dedication and determination of medical staff, and the hands-to-the-pump attitude of civilians who privately supply hospitals and clinics with the medicine and equipment needed to treat their friends and family in hospital.

Under this kind of pressure, what will happen to Cuba next?

The Cuban diaspora in the United States wants an overthrow of the entire communist party, its government, and the end of the Castro family's influence in the country.

Mr Trump and his Cuban-American secretary of state, Marco Rubio, want regime change - though perhaps they will settle for regime compliance.

But the sense my team and I have is that Cubans themselves are less clear-cut in their attitude towards the future.

Certainly, some we met would like to see the current government out, but the majority we spoke to seem to favour a relaxing of endless state-imposed economic rules, and a growth in private enterprise (all but banned under the current rules), more access to affordable food and power, and a rethink about the way the country is run.

Few Cubans seem to support any notion of a complete "Trumpification" of Cuba supported by a military presence or invasion, or the imposition of unbridled capitalism.

The sense I got is that their natural instinct and desire for the future is a social-based democracy with strong healthcare and labour guarantees, that exists alongside a vibrant private sector.

After well over six decades of communism, and almost the same length of time of US sanctions, it won't be easy to achieve that - and certainly not with Mr Trump breathing down their necks.

Read more from Stuart Ramsay:
Cuba is on its knees - and 'next' on Trump's list
How are Cubans surviving the US blockade?

If Cuba collapses and chaos takes over, the US will be forced to deal with the consequences of its own actions.

And if that is their intention, does the Trump administration have a plan in place for the day after?

On my first visit to Cuba in March, people told me this type of economic warfare is no different from a war with bombs and bullets. And if what we've witnessed there is anything to go by, the effects on society appear just as destructive.

(c) Sky News 2026: If Cuba collapses, the US will be forced to deal with the consequence of its actions