Success of the UK-EU trade deal will depend on whether promises are delivered

I have been chewing over some of the main elements of the UK-EU agreement. 

The reset was big on symbolism as the two sides committed to work together in a new post-Brexit era, and meet formally every year to that end.

The acid test is how does this now develop? A key element - and prize for both sides - will be UK access to the EU's €150bn rearmament fund.

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In an interview with Sky News on Monday afternoon, chief EU diplomat Kaja Kallas acknowledged the "wounds of Brexit" mean some member states might want UK access limited, amid reports the French had argued for UK access to be capped at 15% of the fund.

It is fair to say there is a lack of detail around the pact, but Ms Kallas was clear she didn't see this as a zero-sum game.

"We should invest more in European industry," she said.

"But we should also cooperate with our outside partners, like the UK is, because we actually need more defence. We need the defence industry to operate faster, so that the procurement times are shorter and the costs go down."

She also told me that she expects the UK to be accessing the fund before the year is out, stressing the need for rapid European rearmament, would could be presented as a win for the PM.

On the economic side, the UK government says by 2040 the reset will boost the economy by £9bn, an uplift of 0.3% in GDP.

To put that into context, the OBR forecasts the Brexit effect on the economy would lead to GDP being 4% lower by 2035 than it would have been otherwise, so this deal is certainly no game-changer.

But it can't be, when the PM set red lines as no return to the customs union, single market or freedom of movement.

Conservatives say it is a Brexit betrayal, and Sir Keir Starmer has had to give things up.

I noticed at the news conference, when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen talked about fishing rights, the PM looked like he was chewing on a wasp.

But it's clear how important this was for the EU.

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One EU diplomatic source tells me that the shift from the previous five-year deal until 2026 to a 12-year deal until 2038 was "long enough to lay a foundation of trust for the reset of this relationship".

Equally, the veterinary agreement will mean the UK will have to align with EU standards and be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (rule-takers not makers).

What the PM has done on the veterinary agreement and the defence and security partnership is to fulfil two manifesto promises.

Two others - a deal for touring artists and recognition of professional qualifications - were not in this deal, and the political sensitivity around the youth mobility scheme wanted by the EU was plain to see, with details of any scheme yet to be agreed

I think the key to all of it will be the deliverables.

Will e-gates kick in for Brits, will lorry queues lessen and trade become easier, will it help with supermarket prices, will the UK get some big defence contracts, will re-linking the UK and EU energy markets (another part of this agreement) help cut bills, can he avoid a youth mobility plan blowing up in his face?

Beyond the symbolism of Monday, in some ways, this was a pretty limited agreement in that there is so much still to be ironed out and sorted out, but there is scope for the UK government to build out from this and show voters some concrete wins.

(c) Sky News 2025: Success of the UK-EU trade deal will depend on whether promises are delivered