NHS leaders warn that York and Scarborough hospitals could face a combined shortfall of dozens of beds this winter as emergency department wait times rise and social care capacity struggles to meet discharge demands.
York and Scarborough hospitals are facing a winter shortage of dozens of beds as NHS leaders predict a ‘challenging time’ for the health service.
York and Scarborough Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust projects a bed gap of 52 beds at York Hospital and 32 at Scarborough Hospital, based on expected winter demand.
The warning comes after the proportion of patients waiting more than 12 hours in emergency departments at the trust’s hospitals more than doubled from 5.9 per cent in April to 14.6 per cent in August.
Health bosses said that improvements in same-day emergency care, reductions in hospital stays, and an increased discharge rate could free up the equivalent of around 30 beds at York and 13 at Scarborough. After applying those assumptions, a residual shortfall of 22 beds at York and 19 at Scarborough remains.
Despite the predicted shortfall, the trust said plans were in place to reduce pressure on services and create additional capacity if required.
A spokesperson for the York and Scarborough NHS Foundation Trust said:
“Winter is always a challenging time for the NHS, and we have been working closely with our health and social care partners to prepare for the additional pressures we expect across our hospitals.
“Our winter plans focus on improving patient flow, reducing avoidable admissions and supporting patients to leave hospital safely as soon as they are ready. This includes making greater use of same-day emergency care, strengthening discharge arrangements and ensuring patients receive care in the most appropriate setting.”
Speaking to the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS), they added:
“We also have plans to provide additional bed capacity when required, alongside measures to support our emergency departments and reduce delays for patients.
“Our Respiratory Virus Infection Management Plan worked well last winter, and we have taken a similar approach this year, recognising that flu is expected to place additional pressure on our services.
“Our priority remains providing safe, timely care for our patients, and we will continue to monitor demand and respond to pressures as they arise.”
A recent NHS report raised concerns about growing pressure on urgent and emergency care services, delayed discharges and difficulties securing sufficient community and social care capacity to support patients leaving hospital.
The trust’s winter plan warns that:
“There are emerging risks as we move into winter about the availability of social care capacity to support discharge following recent bed closures and the pressure from our ambition to have no corridor care.”
The trust has drawn up contingency plans for up to 52 escalation beds across its two main hospitals should demand exceed expectations. These include using Ward 25 at York Hospital as a winter escalation ward and reopening part of the former critical care unit footprint at Scarborough Hospital, subject to staffing and funding being available.
However, the report stresses that additional beds are intended to be a last resort.
Trust leaders estimate they will need an average of 110 discharges a day at York Hospital and 70 a day at Scarborough Hospital over winter to keep patient flow moving through the hospitals, the report states.
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